Economy
Citi Bank Warns That The World Economy Is In A Death Spiral
The global economy seems trapped in a “death spiral” that could lead to further weakness in oil prices, recession and a serious equity bear market, Citi strategists have warned.
The global economy seems trapped in a “death spiral” that could lead to further weakness in oil prices, recession and a serious equity bear market, Citi strategists have warned.
Some analysts — including those at Citi — have turned bearish on the world economy this year, following an equity rout in January and weaker economic data out of China and the U.S.
“The world appears to be trapped in a circular reference death spiral,” Citi strategists led by Jonathan Stubbs said in a report on Thursday.
“Stronger U.S. dollar, weaker oil/commodity prices, weaker world trade/petrodollar liquidity, weaker EM (and global growth)… and repeat. Ad infinitum, this would lead to Oilmageddon, a ‘significant and synchronized’ global recession and a proper modern-day equity bear market.”
Stubbs said that macro strategists at Citi forecast that the dollar would weaken in 2016 and that oil prices were likely bottoming, potentially providing some light at the end of the tunnel.
“The death spiral is in nobody’s interest. Rational behavior, most likely, will prevail,” he said in the report.
Crude oil prices have tumbled by around 70 percent since the middle of 2014, during which time the U.S. dollar has risen by around 20 percent against a basket of currencies.
Citi forecasts the world economy will grow by only 2.7 percent in 2016 having cut its outlook last month.
“Many markets are now pricing in a significant probability of recession and when we talk about recession, we’re talking particularly about a U.S. recession. Do you think that is likely or not? To me, the odds are too high; the market is pricing too high a probability,” Myles Bradshaw, the head of global aggregate fixed income at Amundi, told CNBC this week. source
Donald Trump
WINNING: Another Trump Promise Kept As America Regains Economic Standing Lost Under The Obama Years, Crowned World’s Most ‘Competitive Economy’
After a decade long absence, the U.S. has regained the distinction of most competitive economy in the world, according to the World Economic Forum.
After a decade long absence, the U.S. has regained the distinction of most competitive economy in the world, according to the World Economic Forum. In fact, only Japan made a bigger improvement of all 140 countries in the survey.
Under President Donald J. Trump, the United States economy has regained the crown as the most vibrant and competitive economy found anywhere in the world today. The US had been noticeably absent from this global powerhouse ranking during the entire 8 years of the Obama presidency.
World’s ‘most competitive’ economy: U.S. regains the crown it lost 10 years ago
FROM WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: The new index measures 140 economies against 98 indicators, organized into 12 ‘pillars’ or drivers of productivity, to determine how close the economy is to the ideal state or ‘frontier’ of competitiveness. (Market Watch also contributed to this report).
The US topped the rankings, being ‘closest to the competitiveness frontier’, with Singapore, Germany, Switzerland and Japan, completing the top five. At the other end of the scale, Haiti, Yemen and Chad were found to be the least competitive economies.
Competitiveness is not only associated with higher incomes, but also better socioeconomic outcomes, including life satisfaction.
(Gold) stars and stripes 🥇 Read more: https://t.co/fJ3HIxXoJD #US #economics pic.twitter.com/Mkkvx91Fvn
— World Economic Forum (@wef) October 17, 2018
Explaining the new approach to measuring competitiveness, Thierry Geiger, Head, Research and Regional Impact, Future of Economic Progress at the World Economic Forum, said: “Productivity is the single most important driver of growth in 2018. With the Fourth Industrial Revolution in full swing, there is a need to rethink the drivers of competitiveness and therefore of long-term growth.
“Those new drivers include adaptability and agility of all stakeholders, including the governments. To what extent are they able to embrace change and adapt to change and upgrade their economies?”
The US scored 85.6 out of 100 to top the index, coming in the top three for seven of the 12 pillars. Its entrepreneurial culture saw it score highly in the business dynamism pillar. It also scored highly for its labour market and financial system. READ MORE
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Donald Trump
Jobs Under President Trump For First 21 Months Are Tens Times Higher Than Obama’s Last 21 Months In Office
Under President Trump’s watch, more than 10 times the number of manufacturing jobs were added, as compared to Obama’s first 21 months in office.
The Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, six months into former President Obama’s first term. The economy continued to shed jobs until the following March. Manufacturing was particularly hard hit, with almost 2.3 million manufacturing jobs—some 1 in 6—lost between January 2008 and March 2010.
When Barack Obama was president, he had glumly resolved that the American economy was not going to come fully back for quite some time. When he listened to candidate Trump’s claims of a Trumpian economic boom, Obama mocking asked if Trump had a ‘magic wand’ to create new jobs. In Obama’s mind, he could not possibly conceive of a restored economy coming about by anything that he, Obama, was capable of doing.
Flash-forward to 2018, and the Stock Market has already set and broken nearly a dozen all-time high records. New jobs added under President Trump are TEN TIMES the amount that President Obama was able to add during the same time period. Ten times! Guess Trump knew where the ‘magic wand’ was after all. He found it in the Oval Office storage closet in a box Obama had marked ‘Capitalism, throw in trash’.
President Trump added ten times the amount of jobs is his first 21 months than Obama did during his last 21 months, after having all that time in office. That’s not just a difference, that’s a landslide of a difference.
The Trump Manufacturing Jobs Boom: 10 Times Obama’s Over 21 Months
FROM FORBES: As is the case during recoveries, jobs bounced back, with seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment expanding almost 12% from March 2010 until January 2017, when President Obama handed over the presidency to Donald Trump.
But during the same period, manufacturing employment grew only 7.7% with manufacturing payrolls virtually flat in the last 21 months of the Obama administration. We were told it was the new normal.
At a town hall in June 2016, President Obama famously said that some manufacturing jobs “are just not going to come back.” He went on to mock then-candidate Trump by saying he’d need a “magic wand” to make good on this manufacturing job promises.
Months later, as the shock of a President-elect Donald Trump was still being absorbed, New York Times columnist and economist Paul Krugman tweeted on November 25, 2016, “Nothing policy can do will bring back those lost jobs. The service sector is the future of work; but nobody wants to hear it.”
Well, a funny thing happened—Trump’s policies, and just as importantly, the expectation of Trump’s policies, ignited a manufacturing resurgence.
In the first 21 months of the Trump presidency, nonfarm employment grew by a seasonally adjusted 2.6%. In the same period, manufacturing employment grew by 3.1%, reversing the trend under Obama when overall employment grew faster than employment in the manufacturing sector.
Comparing the last 21 months of the Obama administration with the first 21 months of Trump’s, shows that under Trump’s watch, more than 10 times the number of manufacturing jobs were added.
Three things likely sparked this manufacturing jobs spike.
First, eight years of the Obama Administration’s piling on regulation upon regulation, from labor rules, to the Clean Power Plan, to the implementation of ObamaCare, placed industry into a defensive crouch. Business leaders were fearful of investing capital, not knowing how the federal rules might capriciously change, thus wiping out their expected return on investment.
That defensiveness ended in November 2016 when the expectations of additional regulatory burdens under a prospective President Clinton vanished. Not coincidentally, manufacturing employment started its sustained upswing the very month of Krugman’s tweet.
Second, the Trump Administration’s deregulatory practice exceeded expectations, with red tape being cut at a faster clip than achieved under President Ronald Reagan 36 years earlier.
Third, with the Republican Congress, President Trump delivered on a major overhaul of the tax code, including a significant cut to business taxes as well as a change to the treatment of overseas profits that incentivized the repatriation of some $300 billion in the first quarter of 2018 out of what the Federal Reserve estimates is $1 trillion in multinational profits held abroad. READ MORE
Now The End Begins is your front line defense against the rising tide of darkness in the last days before the Rapture of the Church
HOW TO DONATE: Click here to view our GoFundMe page
When you contribute to this fundraising effort, you are helping us to do what the Lord called us to do. The money you send in goes primarily to the building of the recording studio, but it also goes to the overall daily operations of this site. When people ask for Bibles, we send them out at no charge. When people write in and say how much they would like gospel tracts but cannot afford them, we send them a box at no cost to them for either the tracts or the shipping, no matter where they are in the world. Even all the way to South Africa. We even restarted our weekly radio Bible study on Sunday nights again, thanks to your generous donations.
But whatever you do, don’t do nothing. Time is short and we need your help right now. If every one of the 12,621 people on our daily mailing list gave $4.50, we would reach our goal immediately. If every one of our 151,781 followers on Facebook gave $1.00 each, we would reach 300% of our goal. The same goes for our 13,600 followers on Twitter. But sadly, many will not give, so we need the ones who can and who will give to be generous. As generous as possible.
“Looking for that blessed hope, and the glorious appearing of the great God and our Saviour Jesus Christ;” Titus 2:13 (KJV)
“Thank you very much!” – Geoffrey, editor-in-chief, NTEB
HOW TO DONATE: Click here to view our GoFundMe page
Donald Trump
MAGA: IBM Unveils Plan To Hire 25,000 Workers Ahead Of Meeting With President-Elect Trump
IBM announced Tuesday it would hire 25,000 people in the U.S. over four years, a day before President-elect Donald Trump meets with tech industry leaders.
US technology giant IBM said Tuesday it would hire 25,000 people in the country over the next four years, a day before President-elect Donald Trump meets with tech industry leaders.
About 6,000 of those hirings will occur in 2017, IBM chief executive Ginni Rometty said in an opinion article published in the newspaper USA Today. IBM, which has undertaken in recent years a restructuring of its activities, will invest $1 billion on employee training and development in the next four years, said the IBM president, chairman and CEO.
“We are hiring because the nature of work is evolving — and that is also why so many of these jobs remain hard to fill,” Rometty said, noting that many industries were being reshaped by data science and cloud computing.
Donald Trump: I’ll take jobs from China, Mexico
“Jobs are being created that demand new skills — which in turn requires new approaches to education, training and recruiting,” she said.
“This is not about white collar vs. blue collar jobs, but about the ‘new collar’ jobs that employers in many industries demand, but which remain largely unfilled.”
Rometty is a member of Trump’s Strategic and Policy Forum, a group of US business leaders focused on boosting economic growth and jobs.
The IBM jobs investment news came before the highly anticipated meeting Wednesday of the Republican property tycoon-turned-next US president and the leaders of several major technology companies.
IBM Promises 25,000 Jobs To Americans:
Among those expected to attend are Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, Apple’s Tim Cook, Satya Nadella of Microsoft, Larry Page of Alphabet (Google) and Elon Musk of Tesla and SpaceX, according to US media.
Trump is expected to push them to create jobs after saying last week that he would like Apple — whose coveted iPhones are made in China — to open a large factory in the United States.
Donald Trump: People are desperate for jobs
But he will be stepping into hostile territory. The tech sector overwhelmingly supported the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton during this year’s election campaign and has expressed fear about the effect Trump’s policies will have on the industry.
The sole notable exception is the controversial PayPal co-founder and early Facebook investor Peter Thiel, currently a member of Trump’s transition team. source
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